Again, your overall strategy should be to look for situations where the national bracket values a team much higher than the objective statistics. (I should stipulate that all of this advice assumes standard NCAA pool rules, where the points for a correct guess double each round, from one point in what the NCAA calls the ?second round? to 32 for the final game.) For example, at the moment only 4 percent of all the participants in ESPN's Tournament Challenge have picked Ohio State to win the tournament?the right-most column on this table.?Pomeroy's log5 analysis of the tournament, by contrast,?gives the Buckeyes an 18.7 percent chance of winning it all, making them the second favorite in the field behind Kentucky. This makes Ohio State a fantastic bargain?while cold-blooded, numerical analysis gives Ohio State a roughly 1-in-5 shot at the title, only one in 25 people have picked them to win. As such, the Buckeyes are the most undervalued asset in the 2012 NCAA Tournament.
Source: http://feeds.slate.com/click.phdo?i=9a96b998e80e951d545d4d7b5ff4a021
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